OnlyDoubles Profit Spotlight for March 29th, 2014

Hello and welcome back to CRI's OnlyDoubles Profit Spotlight.

Here you will find past OnlyDoubles trades that have been recently closed. This blog's purpose is to update the public on recently completed OnlyDoubles trades as a demonstration of the model and a teaser to get you to subscribe. If you would like to learn more or subscribe (for real time access to OnlyDoubles NewTrades) please visit ourSubscription page.

Regular readers of my blogs will know that by nature I am a very conservative investor. I look for deep discounts to value, never risk more than 5% of my total stake on a single investment idea and stick religiously to the notion of selling half of your position on a double (hence the name OnlyDoubles). Typically, my hold period is between four to six months and I can have more than a dozen stock positions on at any one given time (not to mention options). Usually, I do my DD and if I like what I see, I slowly accumulate a position. Most of the time, a stock or an option gives me plenty of time to take a position and then write up a nice 'Rational' case for buying it. Best case scenario, I'm in and then you all get in. We all have the same price target in mind and we all get out in and around that area.....makes sense no? 

After an almost 25 month pause (I have been very busy learning the craft of day-trading Crude oil futures) CRI's Only Doubles has another winner!

Last September 21st, CRI issues an OnlyDoubles trading alert on Sugar #11. Specifically, buying the October, 2014 $.20 call options at 46 cents or better. That translated to roughly $515.20 ($11.20/pt) plus commissions. Considering the time value alone I thought this was a good idea. Add in some realistic technical targets and this was a veritable 'no-brainer'. Those Calls initially zoomed higher and I was looking like a genius. However, the option price never did double so as the market slowly melted back down to our purchase price and then even lower, I was looking rather foolish. In very typical commodity fashion, this market had one more push lower up its sleeve. This is one specific reason why I like options trading rather then futures or stocks. Since the premium paid is the maximum liability an option purchaser can incur, it really didn't matter if the price of the underlying went lower, I was more than happy to consider the $500 as the entire invested capital and whatever happens happens – October, 2014 was a very long way away. Indeed, that feature of options purchases seems to have paid off because prices of late have come storming back. So much so, that our long outstanding open order to sell half the position at double our purchase price (in this case $.92) was recently hit. Those that did do the trade should be sitting in a 'free' position. You should have sold half the position at that double level and have all your original $500 invested back in your hands. Who knows where the market will take Sugar prices over the next six months but my hunch is somewhere above $.20. 

That's all for this post, 
Brian Beamish FCSI
The Canadian Rational Investor
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.therationalinvestor.ca

OnlyDoubles Profit Spotlight for February 17th, 2012

Hello and welcome back to CRI's OnlyDoubles Profit Spotlight.

Here you will find past OnlyDoubles trades that have been recently closed. This blog's purpose is to update the public on recently completed OnlyDoubles trades as a demonstration of the model and a teaser to get you to subscribe. If you would like to learn more or subscribe (for real time access to OnlyDoubles NewTrades) please visit our Subscription page.

Regular readers of my blogs will know that by nature I am a very conservative investor. I look for deep discounts to value, never risk more than 5% of my total stake on a single investment idea and stick religiously to the notion of selling half of your position on a double (hence the name OnlyDoubles). Typically, my hold period is between four to six months and I can have more than a dozen stock positions on at any one given time (not to mention options). Usually, I do my DD and if I like what I see, I slowly accumulate a position. Most of the time, a stock or an option gives me plenty of time to take a position and then write up a nice 'Rational' case for buying it. Best case scenario, I'm in and then you all get in. We all have the same price target in mind and we all get out in and around that area.....makes sense no? 

After an almost 10 month pause, CRI's Only Doubles has another winner!

We first looked at LAR (La Ronge Gold Corp.) back when it was a diamond play in nothern Ontario (and was called Chalice Diamonds) in April of last year. The stock had been recently rolled back, options were granted to new directors and there were shares issued in the new company for outstanding outstanding - all the hallmarks of a classic VCIM model play. The technical signal to buy came in when the stock registered a double bottom price pattern and broke out from $.145 cents. 

After the reorganization, the company moved from the diamond to gold exploration industry. They acquired a property in northern Saskatchewan that had historic work done on a respectable gold deposit. The stock is running higher now because the company is currently drilling new holes that will hopefully confirm the historic (non 43-01 compliant) data. The stock hit a high of $.38 cents on Friday February 17th, 2012. This is well above our entry of $.145 and represents more than a double on the trade. For those that have not already done so, taking some profits at this point seems only prudent. Exactly where, is up to you. I myself am looking for this stock to enter the low $.40 cent area (which is only .03 away!) so I may be selling a bit myself soon.

That's all for this post,
Brian Beamish FCSI
The Canadian Rational Investor
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.therationalinvestor.ca

OnlyDoubles Profit Spotlight for April11th, 2011

Hello and welcome back to CRI's OnlyDoubles Profit Spotlight.

Here you will find past OnlyDoubles trades that have been recently closed. This blog's purpose is to update the public on recently completed OnlyDoubles trades as a demonstration of the model and a teaser to get you to subscribe. If you would like to learn more or subscribe (for real time access to OnlyDoubles NewTrades) please visit our Subscription page.

Regular readers of my blogs will know that by nature I am a very conservative investor. I look for deep discounts to value, never risk more than 5% of my total stake on a single investment idea and stick religiously to the notion of selling half of your position on a double (hence the name OnlyDoubles). Typically, my hold period is between four to six months and I can have more than a dozen stock positions on at any one given time (not to mention options). Usually, I do my DD and if I like what I see, I slowly accumulate a position. Most of the time, a stock or an option gives me plenty of time to take a position and then write up a nice 'Rational' case for buying it. Best case scenario, I'm in and then you all get in. We all have the same price target in mind and we all get out in and around that area.....makes sense no? 

After an almost two month pause, CRI's Only Doubles has another winner!

CRI published a report in CRI's OnlyDoublesNewTrades on Novermeber 30th, 2010 on Weststar Resources Corp. (WER.V). The stock was initial purchased in and around the $.30 area. Today the stock is currently trading at $.86 for well over a double! This trade took about 3.5 months to develop and come to fruition which is actually a little faster than my expectation window of 4 to 6 months...

The stock has been moving up recently on the news that it is in the process of purchasing a past producing mine in Mexico (news link: http://tmx.quotemedia.com/article.php?newsid=39919015&qm_symbol=WER). 

Those that were fortunate enough to buy some in the thirty cent area are well advised to sell at least half of your position (to get your initial investment dollars back in your hands) and let the rest ride. Once the sale is complete, there will be no risk on the remaining share position (cost basis will be $0.00). While I am not totally sure where this stock will go in the coming months, it is generally a good idea to create a risk free position whenever you can and I myself have gone ahead and done so...

Isn't investing fun!

That's all for this issue of CRI's OnlyDoubles,

Brian Beamish FCSI

the_rational_investor@yahoo.com

http://www.the-rational-investor.com

OnlyDoubles Profit Spotlight for February 15th, 2010

Hello and welcome back to CRI's OnlyDoubles Profit Spotlight.

Here you will find past OnlyDoubles trades that have been recently closed. This blog's purpose is to update the public on recently completed OnlyDoubles trades as a demonstration of the model and a teaser to get you to subscribe. If you would like to learn more or subscribe (for real time access to OnlyDoubles NewTrades) please visit our Subscription page.

Regular readers of my blogs will know that by nature I am a very conservative investor. I look for deep discounts to value, never risk more than 5% of my total stake on a single investment idea and stick religiously to the notion of selling half of your position on a double (hence the name OnlyDoubles). Typically, my hold period is between four to six months and I can have more than a dozen stock positions on at any one given time (not to mention options). Usually, I do my DD and if I like what I see, I slowly accumulate a position. Most of the time, a stock or an option gives me plenty of time to take a position and then write up a nice 'Rational' case for buying it. Best case scenario, I'm in and then you all get in. We all have the same price target in mind and we all get out in and around that area.....makes sense no? 

So with all that being said, every once in a while we get handed an incredible treat. A treat so nice I can't even get it out to all my subscribers in time. This sometimes has unfortunate consequences -  today's stock is such an example.

About a month ago, while doing our regular VCIM screen, a stock came up that met our criteria. This stock had literally done nothing for years and had repeatedly been subject to trading halts. Once free trading again (trading halt lifted by the exchange in early Feb.) it popped up on the screens and I had to look at it. The fact that there was so few shares outstanding and it was such a low price ($.075) meant that the company was literally trading at the value a CDNX shell trades at. In all honesty, it almost didn't seem real. The company was Meridex Software (MSC on the Cdn. Venture exchange). 

The company describes itself as "a leading provider of software solutions for emergency management and calendar inter-operability. We help educational institutions, government, hospitals, retail and corporate enterprises manage, monitor, and optimize emergency preparedness and security. Meridex provides intelligent emergency management solutions synchronizing all of the relevant information sources into one common operating picture" (link)

Fundamental criteria

- currently 7 million shares outstanding as the stock was recently rolled back December, 2009 on a 1:15 basis (news link)

- 3.4 million Options to Directors at $.11 on pre-rolled back basis (news link)

But the real bottom line here is total valuation. At $.075 and with only 7 million shares outstanding, the trading vehicle MSC had a total market cap of $525,000. Now as a Canadian I know very well the bureaucracy of this country. You can't even sneeze without having to pay some government agency off. It is absolutely stunning how the Canadian system is very happy with the red -tape and the associated costs that go with it. And unlike some other more free market economies, there is absolutely no way around it, period! You want to do business in Canadian stocks, its gonna cost you a bundle. So this leads us to the big point - just because of costs, a CDNX listed trading shell goes for between $250,000 to $500,000 yet it doesn't show anywhere on the balance sheet. Between lawyers fees, filing fees, exchange fees, etc a new listing is very expensive. But as long as the company has paid its annual dues and submitted the required reports, it can sit on the exchange forever.

Technical criteria
The technical picture was rather compeling as a double bottom price pattern was registered when prices traded through the Fall '10 high of $.08. From a 50% level perspective, once could justify buying up to $.0975 and realistically expect to double your money.

1 year 50% rule ($.35 + $.04) / 2 = $.195

5 year 50% rule ($3.50 + $.04) / 2 = $1.77) 

So, just seven trading days ago, CRI went ahead and bought MSC.V on the double bottom breakout at $.08. I was willing to risk 50% of my capital here or down to the original bottom at $.04. I instantly placed open orders to sell half my position at $.165 or better.

Well, as you can see by today's price action, the stock went a little crazy. It hit a high of $.225 and CRI was filled on our sell order at $.17! I spent the rest of the morning talking with my regular traders and subscribers suggesting that if they could sell some at more than a double (of their purchase price) then to go ahead and do so. 


Congrats to all that were able to do so!


For subscribers who missed this trade, I do apologies, it came on way faster than I thought/expected and there hasn't even been any news....go figure. I had a choice between this one and ZN and I did the write up on Zinccorp. I feel just as bullish about ZN (maybe even a little more so after talking to the company) so certainly don't give up on him. For those that may wish to try and play MSC up to the ultimate target of $1.75. I suggest you work open orders down to the $.10 area as today's price action left a very large Gap at that level that will need to be filled at some point in the future (my hunch is it will be during the June correction).I wouldn't be in a big hurry to pull the trigger now, just be patient and if it comes back down to earth take a good look again near a dime...

That's all for this issue of CRI's OnlyDoubles,

Brian Beamish FCSI

the_rational_investor@yahoo.com

http://www.the-rational-investor.com

OnlyDoubles Profit Spotlight for December 30th, 2010

Hello and welcome back to CRI's OnlyDoubles Profit Spotlight.

Here you will find past OnlyDoubles trades that have been recently closed. This blog's purpose is to update the public on recently completed OnlyDoubles trades as a demonstration of the model and a teaser to get you to subscribe. If you would like to learn more or subscribe (for real time access to OnlyDoubles NewTrades) please visit our Subscription page.

Considering the substantial gains seen of late in the venture capital market, it should come as no big surprise that yet another little penny stock has doubled in price. Regardless of the reason, CRI's time tested rule suggests that one ought to sell at least half of an investment if it should double. And as a result of this rule, CRI is taking (at least partial) profits once again.

The latest stock to double is a little shell we have owned for some time, EcoMax Energy Services (EES.H on the Canadian Venture Exchange). The company itself was basically unwound through 2009 and has languished between $.01 and .03 for some time. At those levels and with only 25 million shares outstanding, the stock was basically trading at the value of the trading shell ($250,000 to $500,000). Since there are many legal and tax issues with regard to listing on the Canadian Venture Exchange once can put a price tag on a the trading vehicle itself. That number comes to around $500,000 so it is no surprise we see bottoms come in on stocks that wish to remain listed on the venture exchange in and around that level. The best part about finding a shell is that once something is done with it, prices can move rather dramatically. Indeed, that has happened. There has been no news of significance but clearly something is going on here.

18 Month Chart

The above chart should be shown to every new technical analyst out there. An example of price, volume and momentum coming together all at once, the double bottom breakout that occurred in November was quickly followed by a dramatic move higher in price. The breakout came at $.02 but with such a powerful looking chart we just had to pull the trigger and pay the offer. Canadian stocks trade in half pennies so our fill came at $.025. As of two days ago, CRI was filled on an open order to sell half the purchased stock at $.05. While the current uptrend suggests support is in and around the original breakout near $.025, our remaining position is 'free' so I am more than happy to let the rest ride.

...speaking of rides....do you know which market CRI's OnlyDoubles is trying to take a position in right now? Seems to me it's worth $100/year subscription to find out....

(OnlyDoubles NewTrades)

That's all for this issue of CRI's OnlyDoubles,

Brian Beamish FCSI

the_rational_investor@yahoo.com

http://www.the-rational-investor.com

OnlyDoubles Profit Spotlight for November 25th, 2010

Hello and welcome back to CRI's OnlyDoubles Profit Spotlight.

Here you will find past OnlyDoubles trades that have been recently closed. This blog's purpose is to update the public on recently completed OnlyDoubles trades as a demonstration of the model and a teaser to get you to subscribe. If you would like to learn more or subscribe (for real time access to OnlyDoubles NewTrades) please visit our Subscription page.

Continuing our theme of Uranium in particular and energy in general (please refer to 1st 2 wks of 'Q410 Report for more on expected sector out performance) our latest position to double in value is THC.V (Thelon Capital). 

THC over the past 6 months 

 

THC over the past 3 years

THC first came to CRI's attention when the stock was rolled back during the spring of 2010. With less than 10 million shares outstanding the company did a financing at $.11. to both clean up the company's debt and give it some operating capital. At the time the company had substantial assets (specifically uranium and diamonds) and was trading at .3 price/book value per share. The low share count, the lack of debt and the substantial asset base made the stock a good fundamental candidate, it was just a question of when to pull the trigger.

The position was put on in the middle of September based on a technical breakout (when price broke out from a very tight double bottom formation) at $.14 with stops just below support at $.11. As well as the price breakout, volume and momentum confirmed the breakout. The price of THC has moved higher on several developments over the past six months. The acquisition of a coal deposit in Tennessee and the general revaluation of uranium related assets in particular. So much so that a rational investor ought to think about taking some profits. 

A simple time tested rule when investing simply states that one should always sell half a position when it doubles in value. Other than taking a nice profit (and putting a nice smile on everyone's face), this rule forces you as an investor to act in an algorithmic fashion. This takes the emotion out of the equation. And whenever you take the emotion out of the investment process life becomes a lot easier to deal with...

What one does with the remaining position is up to you. The significant volume that came in today coupled with the still dramatically cheap valuation (.6 price/book) on this little company leads me to believe that we shall see higher prices to come. Should the stock double again I will look to sell some more of my remaining free shares...

...speaking of trading....do you know which market CRI's OnlyDoubles is trying to take a position in right now? Seems to me it's worth $100/year subscription to find out....

(OnlyDoubles NewTrades)

That's all for this issue of CRI's OnlyDoubles,

Brian Beamish FCSI

the_rational_investor@yahoo.com

http://www.the-rational-investor.com

OnlyDoubles Profit Spotlight for October 27th, 2010

Hello and welcome back to CRI's OnlyDoubles Profit Spotlight.

Here you will find past OnlyDoubles trades that have been recently closed. This blog's purpose is to update the public on recently completed OnlyDoubles trades as a demonstration of the model and a teaser to get you to subscribe. If you would like to learn more or subscribe (for real time access to OnlyDoubles NewTrades) please visit our Subscription page.

When it rains, it pours

Uranium has come back into the spotlight of late and one of our little gems has moved rather dramatically. Subscribers will recall that just a month ago this stock got CRI's attention. It was purchased at .23 (based on the tight double bottom registered) as the chart shows and half of the stock was sold today at more than double our purchase price. Since the company is still trading at a huge discount to its book value, I am more than happy to sit on our remaining 'free shares' and see where the wind will blow this little one. For those readers who are not subscribers, here is a little background on the company and why I thought it was such a great buy a month ago.

PIT-V (Pitchblack Resources - Cdn. Venture Exchange) is a Uranium exploration company that used to be called Cash Minerals. During the crisis of just a few years ago, Cash ran out of money and unfortunately the stock collapsed. Over the past summer the company was reorganized, the shares were rolled back (only 7.5 million outstanding as of writing!) and its old debts resolved. As well, the company graciously offered lots of NEW stock to directors at very low levels. From a valuation perspective, at .23 the stock was trading at a ridiculous .16 times book value per share. Put all these fundamentals together and the story was very compeling. Finally, the technical picture improved dramatically in late September as a double bottom was registered in price as well as Volume studies (here shows OBV) and momentum (here is the 7 period RSI and a slightly modified MACD ROC histogram).

FYI these are setting developed by CRI over the past 20 years and are very helpful in determining if a trend is for real or not! Feel free to try and apply them to your trading...

...speaking of trading....do you know which market CRI's OnlyDoubles is trying to take a position in right now? Seems to me it's worth $100/year subscription to find out....

(OnlyDoubles NewTrades)

That's all for this issue of CRI's OnlyDoubles,

Brian Beamish FCSI

the_rational_investor@yahoo.com

http://www.the-rational-investor.com