OnlyDoubles Profit Spotlight for December 30th, 2010

Hello and welcome back to CRI's OnlyDoubles Profit Spotlight.

Here you will find past OnlyDoubles trades that have been recently closed. This blog's purpose is to update the public on recently completed OnlyDoubles trades as a demonstration of the model and a teaser to get you to subscribe. If you would like to learn more or subscribe (for real time access to OnlyDoubles NewTrades) please visit our Subscription page.

Considering the substantial gains seen of late in the venture capital market, it should come as no big surprise that yet another little penny stock has doubled in price. Regardless of the reason, CRI's time tested rule suggests that one ought to sell at least half of an investment if it should double. And as a result of this rule, CRI is taking (at least partial) profits once again.

The latest stock to double is a little shell we have owned for some time, EcoMax Energy Services (EES.H on the Canadian Venture Exchange). The company itself was basically unwound through 2009 and has languished between $.01 and .03 for some time. At those levels and with only 25 million shares outstanding, the stock was basically trading at the value of the trading shell ($250,000 to $500,000). Since there are many legal and tax issues with regard to listing on the Canadian Venture Exchange once can put a price tag on a the trading vehicle itself. That number comes to around $500,000 so it is no surprise we see bottoms come in on stocks that wish to remain listed on the venture exchange in and around that level. The best part about finding a shell is that once something is done with it, prices can move rather dramatically. Indeed, that has happened. There has been no news of significance but clearly something is going on here.

18 Month Chart

The above chart should be shown to every new technical analyst out there. An example of price, volume and momentum coming together all at once, the double bottom breakout that occurred in November was quickly followed by a dramatic move higher in price. The breakout came at $.02 but with such a powerful looking chart we just had to pull the trigger and pay the offer. Canadian stocks trade in half pennies so our fill came at $.025. As of two days ago, CRI was filled on an open order to sell half the purchased stock at $.05. While the current uptrend suggests support is in and around the original breakout near $.025, our remaining position is 'free' so I am more than happy to let the rest ride.

...speaking of rides....do you know which market CRI's OnlyDoubles is trying to take a position in right now? Seems to me it's worth $100/year subscription to find out....

(OnlyDoubles NewTrades)

That's all for this issue of CRI's OnlyDoubles,

Brian Beamish FCSI

the_rational_investor@yahoo.com

http://www.the-rational-investor.com

OnlyDoubles Profit Spotlight for November 25th, 2010

Hello and welcome back to CRI's OnlyDoubles Profit Spotlight.

Here you will find past OnlyDoubles trades that have been recently closed. This blog's purpose is to update the public on recently completed OnlyDoubles trades as a demonstration of the model and a teaser to get you to subscribe. If you would like to learn more or subscribe (for real time access to OnlyDoubles NewTrades) please visit our Subscription page.

Continuing our theme of Uranium in particular and energy in general (please refer to 1st 2 wks of 'Q410 Report for more on expected sector out performance) our latest position to double in value is THC.V (Thelon Capital). 

THC over the past 6 months 

 

THC over the past 3 years

THC first came to CRI's attention when the stock was rolled back during the spring of 2010. With less than 10 million shares outstanding the company did a financing at $.11. to both clean up the company's debt and give it some operating capital. At the time the company had substantial assets (specifically uranium and diamonds) and was trading at .3 price/book value per share. The low share count, the lack of debt and the substantial asset base made the stock a good fundamental candidate, it was just a question of when to pull the trigger.

The position was put on in the middle of September based on a technical breakout (when price broke out from a very tight double bottom formation) at $.14 with stops just below support at $.11. As well as the price breakout, volume and momentum confirmed the breakout. The price of THC has moved higher on several developments over the past six months. The acquisition of a coal deposit in Tennessee and the general revaluation of uranium related assets in particular. So much so that a rational investor ought to think about taking some profits. 

A simple time tested rule when investing simply states that one should always sell half a position when it doubles in value. Other than taking a nice profit (and putting a nice smile on everyone's face), this rule forces you as an investor to act in an algorithmic fashion. This takes the emotion out of the equation. And whenever you take the emotion out of the investment process life becomes a lot easier to deal with...

What one does with the remaining position is up to you. The significant volume that came in today coupled with the still dramatically cheap valuation (.6 price/book) on this little company leads me to believe that we shall see higher prices to come. Should the stock double again I will look to sell some more of my remaining free shares...

...speaking of trading....do you know which market CRI's OnlyDoubles is trying to take a position in right now? Seems to me it's worth $100/year subscription to find out....

(OnlyDoubles NewTrades)

That's all for this issue of CRI's OnlyDoubles,

Brian Beamish FCSI

the_rational_investor@yahoo.com

http://www.the-rational-investor.com

OnlyDoubles Profit Spotlight for October 27th, 2010

Hello and welcome back to CRI's OnlyDoubles Profit Spotlight.

Here you will find past OnlyDoubles trades that have been recently closed. This blog's purpose is to update the public on recently completed OnlyDoubles trades as a demonstration of the model and a teaser to get you to subscribe. If you would like to learn more or subscribe (for real time access to OnlyDoubles NewTrades) please visit our Subscription page.

When it rains, it pours

Uranium has come back into the spotlight of late and one of our little gems has moved rather dramatically. Subscribers will recall that just a month ago this stock got CRI's attention. It was purchased at .23 (based on the tight double bottom registered) as the chart shows and half of the stock was sold today at more than double our purchase price. Since the company is still trading at a huge discount to its book value, I am more than happy to sit on our remaining 'free shares' and see where the wind will blow this little one. For those readers who are not subscribers, here is a little background on the company and why I thought it was such a great buy a month ago.

PIT-V (Pitchblack Resources - Cdn. Venture Exchange) is a Uranium exploration company that used to be called Cash Minerals. During the crisis of just a few years ago, Cash ran out of money and unfortunately the stock collapsed. Over the past summer the company was reorganized, the shares were rolled back (only 7.5 million outstanding as of writing!) and its old debts resolved. As well, the company graciously offered lots of NEW stock to directors at very low levels. From a valuation perspective, at .23 the stock was trading at a ridiculous .16 times book value per share. Put all these fundamentals together and the story was very compeling. Finally, the technical picture improved dramatically in late September as a double bottom was registered in price as well as Volume studies (here shows OBV) and momentum (here is the 7 period RSI and a slightly modified MACD ROC histogram).

FYI these are setting developed by CRI over the past 20 years and are very helpful in determining if a trend is for real or not! Feel free to try and apply them to your trading...

...speaking of trading....do you know which market CRI's OnlyDoubles is trying to take a position in right now? Seems to me it's worth $100/year subscription to find out....

(OnlyDoubles NewTrades)

That's all for this issue of CRI's OnlyDoubles,

Brian Beamish FCSI

the_rational_investor@yahoo.com

http://www.the-rational-investor.com

OnlyDoubles Profit Spotlight for October 20th, 2010

Hello and welcome back to CRI's OnlyDoubles Profit Spotlight.

Here you will find past OnlyDoubles trades that have been recently closed. This blog's purpose is to update the public on recently completed OnlyDoubles trades as a demonstration of the model and a teaser to get you to subscribe. If you would like to learn more or subscribe (for real time access to OnlyDoubles NewTrades) please visit our Subscription page.

CRI strikes again!

In a hot market, many of the junior stocks that have sat dormant for months on end seem to magically come alive. This week we review a trade that took very little time to develop but that has been on our radar screens for quite some time.

Regardless, TIX-V represents our third double (in as many months) in the Junior cap arena and our fifth since starting this blog in July. That is pretty damn amazing if you ask me...

so here then is the profit write up on TIX...



TIX came to CRI's attention in earnest this summer when it started to meet CRI's venture Cap Investment Model criteria (Please refer to CRI's Investing in Companies seminar material for more on this model and how it works).

Specifically, TIX has a very low share count (23 million shares with about 10 million tied up in escrow). As well, there was substantial insider buying of the stock (through options to director, link) through the summer. And finally, at .05/share, the company was trading at a HUGE discount to its tangible book value per share.

In essence, the company was trading at pennies on the dollar and the insiders were lining their proverbial pockets.....and people are surprised that the rich get richer while the poor get poorer.

Technically, the stock registered a very well defined double bottom in price through the end of the summer. It broke out the week of Sept. 20th at .04 and we were fortunate to buy at .045.....

As you can see from the price chart, a simple 50% retracement of the spring/summer 2010 bear slide ought to bring prices back to .11. Since a move to .09 would represent a double, CRI put 1/2 of the position up for sale at .095 and was filled two trading days ago. With the stock now at .10, we can comfortably suggest that CRI was correct in the call....

Going forward, the fundamentals are still very positive for the company. While the underlying metals market can remain strong, I see no reason to touch our remaining 'free' shares. In fact, I plan to get ready to sell another half of the position at .19....

...speaking of trades....do you know which market CRI's OnlyDoubles is trying to take a position in right now? Seems to me it's worth $100/year subscription to find out....
OnlyDoubles NewTrades)

That's all for this issue of CRI's OnlyDoubles,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com

OnlyDoubles Profit Spotlight for October 08th, 2010

Hello and welcome back to CRI's OnlyDoubles Profit Spotlight.

Here you will find past OnlyDoubles trades that have been recently closed. This blog's purpose is to update the public on recently completed OnlyDoubles trades as a demonstration of the model and a teaser to get you to subscribe. If you would like to learn more or subscribe (for real time access to new OnlyDoubles trade ideas) please visit our Subscription page.

'Make hey when the sun is shining - boy'

Seems like an appropriate cliche for the current market. Currently the S&P TSX 60 and TSX Venture exchange are breaking to new intra-year highs and are pointing much higher. In these types of environments once can see little stocks double and more in very short periods of time. With this in mind, it should be of no surprise that we at OnlyDoubles have yet another little stock that has given us a double in the past few trading sessions and fully expect there to be a few more before this rally is done!



AndeanGold (AAU-V) is a typical little stock that in a 'hot' environment can move dramatically. The stock first came to CRI's attention because some of CRI's Venture Cap Investment Model's criteria were being met. Specifically, this stock was subject to a significant 'roll-back' or consolidation in its shares over the summer of 2010. Shortly after, the company granted options to directors and did a financing to raise some working capital. Being in the precious metals industry and working on their property has put a bid in the stock to say the least...

The stock has doubled and CRI has sold half the position. Because there are so few shares outstanding, the share price is still a fraction of its previous highs, and the company is still trading at a huge discount to its book value, I'm more than happy to sit on my remaining position with the goal of selling half of that at yet another double. With this in mind, I have open orders working to sell at or near $.65.

...speaking of trades....do you know which market CRI's OnlyDoubles is trying to take a position in right now? Seems to me it's worth $100/year subscription to find out....


That's all for this issue of CRI's OnlyDoubles,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com

OnlyDoubles Profit Spotlight for September 03rd, 2010

Hello and welcome back to CRI's OnlyDoubles Profit Spotlight.

Here you will find past OnlyDoubles trades that have been recently closed. This blog's purpose is to update the public on recently completed OnlyDoubles trades as a demonstration of the model and a teaser to get you to subscribe. If you would like to learn more or subscribe (for real time access to new OnlyDoubles trade ideas) please visit our Subscription page.

The first week of September, 2010 has brought a friendly Canadian stock market and another OnlyDoubles trade to take profits on. This trade was originally put on last November, 2009 for a total hold period of just over 10 months (not bad....try getting that kind of return at the bank!). So here is the trade in which we took partial profits on this week. Considering the current price is even higher than our double target, any remaining stock can be sold at an even higher rate of return....but the rest is up to you.



For the time being I'm more than happy to sit on my remaining position with the goal of selling half of that at yet another double. With this in mind, I have open orders working to sell at or near $.65.

...speaking of trades....do you know which market CRI's OnlyDoubles is trying to take a position in right now? Seems to me it's worth $100/year subscription to find out....

That's all for this issue of CRI's OnlyDoubles,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com

OnlyDoubles Profit Spotlight for August 24th, 2010

Hello and welcome back to CRI's OnlyDoubles Profit Spotlight.

Here you will find past OnlyDoubles trades that have been recently closed. This blog's purpose is to update the public on recently completed OnlyDoubles trades as a demonstration of the model and a teaser to get you to subscribe. If you would like to learn more or subscribe (for real time access to new OnlyDoubles trade ideas) please visit our Subscription page.

The final week of the 2010 summer has given us a treate in the form of a double in our Feeder Cattle position.

Feeder Cattle (CME)



The image above is a chart of the January 2010 Feeder Cattle futures contract traded on the CME. As well, I have superimposed a few of the closing option quotes for August 24th.

For those new to trading, anytime a contract breaks out of the chart pattern you see here, it is very bullish. Copy it and keep it for your records. I don't care, a fact is a fact...Not surprising then, prices have move up very aggressivly. So much so, that our 118 calls are trading like the market is closer to 121 (based purly on intrisic value) and yet the market is still well out-of-the-money at 117.

Recently, subscribers to CRI's OnlyDoubles newsletter service were suggested to take a position in the January 118 Feeder Cattle Call Options at or near 1.50 points (point A.). I myself was able to buy at 1.20 points. As you can see, these options settled well above 3.00 today.

As a general rule of thumb, one ought to sell at least half their position in any market should it double in value. Since I myself was only able to buy one, I have cleaned the position out at a more than comforable double to my 1.20 entry. Should we get a pullback in price (maybe to fill the noticable gap at 113 & 115) I might re-enter the trade....

For the time being I'm more than happy to sit on yet another double....

...speaking of trades....do you know which market CRI's OnlyDoubles is trying to take a position in right now? Seems to me it's worth $100/year subscription to find out....

That's all for this issue of CRI's OnlyDoubles,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com

OnlyDoubles Profit Spotlight for the week of July 30th, 2010

Hello and welcome back to CRI's OnlyDoubles Profit Spotlight.

Here you will find past OnlyDoubles trades. This blog's purpose is to update the public on recently completed OnlyDoubles trades. If you would like to learn more or subscribe (for real time access to new OnlyDoubles trade ideas) please visit our Subscription page.

Sugar #11



Sugar prices have been trending higher (according to CRI's CTS) for 7 weeks now. When prices first broke CRI suggested one ought to pick up the October $.20 call options for $.0032 ($407US). As the chart to the left above shows, prices have moved dramatically higher over the past month. Indeed, price has moved up so much that our $.20 call option has doubled in value (.72 bid / .79 offered as of writing this AM).

While I do believe there is still more room for this market to move higher (and for the option to continue to move higher in price), the prudent action by all investors is to sell at least half of your position should it double in value. Today's blog entry then is a testament to this time tested principle.

If one sells at least half their position today (at .75 or better) then the absolute worst case scenario on this trade will be to see the remaining half of the position expire worthless (which we of course will endeavor to avoid). Should you decide to sell the whole position today then your profit on this 7 week trade should be just about 100%.....not bad at all!

Now what you do with the profits is up to you, but you might want to check out the latest edition of CRI's OnlyDoubles to find out where CRI sees the next potential double out there.

That's all for this issue of CRI's OnlyDoubles,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com

CTS Spotlight for the week of July 8th, 2010

Hello and welcome to CRI's OnlyDoubles inaugural blog entry

As this is the first issue of CRI's OnlyDoubles blog, I will review a typical only doubles trade that was executed over the winter months. Long time readers of CRI will remember this trade from its inception to conclusion. Here then is a review of SSW (Seaspan) and how the trade went.



In the Winter of '09-'10 the world economy still had a head of steam. Prices where continuing their nine month surge on a belief that continued growth out of China would pull the world economy back from the brink. Regardless of weather or not one believes that the world economy is indeed on the mend, the market had gotten so technically oversold that a bounce (in this commentators opinion) was inevitable. Here for example, was a multi-national corporation with global operations and a relatively consistent earnings stream that saw its stock go from $25 to $3 in a matter of months.

Shrewd investors ought to have seen the opportunity (how do read OPPORTUNITYISNOWHERE?).

From a simple 50% rule perspective, the odds of this stock seeing a move into the low teens again seemed quite high. As our time tested bottom hunting trading system looks for higher highs and higher lows (the 'W' pattern), I waited until we got the breakout through $9.72 which came in early January, 2010. Since our simple goal is to find trades that will literally double in value, we looked to the options market for exposure to the stock. We could have bought the stock at $10 and looked for a 30% return with a sale at $13 but at the same time, a 6 month 'at-the-money' call option ($10 stike price) was trading at $1.10. If the stock did go to our target in that six month time frame (the life of the option) that option would have a value of $3.00. Now that's my kind of trading! At the time I was notified of my fill (bought Aug. '10 $10 calls at $1.15, I immediately placed an order to sell half the position at my target ($3.00).

Indeed, within 3 months of issuing an alert on SSW, the stock rallied more than 35%. At the same time, call option premiums exploded. While I fully expected a move to $13.00 (which would imply $3.00 of intrinsic value on the call option - and way more than a double) even I was shocked when the price spiked into the $14 area. Open orders to sell our position were indeed filled (one person got off at $3.60....lucky dog) but most were sold between $2.50 and $3.00. I then let the rest go at $2.50 for an average sale price of $2.75. Considering our cost was $1.15 the actual profit return was 139% or well over a double.

So there you go, our first blog entry for CRI's OnlyDoubles service. Should you have any questions, comments or concerns, please feel free to contact us at the-rational-investor.com for a prompt reply.

That's all for this issue of CRI's OnlyDoubles,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com