As this is the first issue of CRI's OnlyDoubles blog, I will review a typical only doubles trade that was executed over the winter months. Long time readers of CRI will remember this trade from its inception to conclusion. Here then is a review of SSW (Seaspan) and how the trade went.
In the Winter of '09-'10 the world economy still had a head of steam. Prices where continuing their nine month surge on a belief that continued growth out of China would pull the world economy back from the brink. Regardless of weather or not one believes that the world economy is indeed on the mend, the market had gotten so technically oversold that a bounce (in this commentators opinion) was inevitable. Here for example, was a multi-national corporation with global operations and a relatively consistent earnings stream that saw its stock go from $25 to $3 in a matter of months.
Shrewd investors ought to have seen the opportunity (how do read OPPORTUNITYISNOWHERE?).
From a simple 50% rule perspective, the odds of this stock seeing a move into the low teens again seemed quite high. As our time tested bottom hunting trading system looks for higher highs and higher lows (the 'W' pattern), I waited until we got the breakout through $9.72 which came in early January, 2010. Since our simple goal is to find trades that will literally double in value, we looked to the options market for exposure to the stock. We could have bought the stock at $10 and looked for a 30% return with a sale at $13 but at the same time, a 6 month 'at-the-money' call option ($10 stike price) was trading at $1.10. If the stock did go to our target in that six month time frame (the life of the option) that option would have a value of $3.00. Now that's my kind of trading! At the time I was notified of my fill (bought Aug. '10 $10 calls at $1.15, I immediately placed an order to sell half the position at my target ($3.00).
Indeed, within 3 months of issuing an alert on SSW, the stock rallied more than 35%. At the same time, call option premiums exploded. While I fully expected a move to $13.00 (which would imply $3.00 of intrinsic value on the call option - and way more than a double) even I was shocked when the price spiked into the $14 area. Open orders to sell our position were indeed filled (one person got off at $3.60....lucky dog) but most were sold between $2.50 and $3.00. I then let the rest go at $2.50 for an average sale price of $2.75. Considering our cost was $1.15 the actual profit return was 139% or well over a double.
So there you go, our first blog entry for CRI's OnlyDoubles service. Should you have any questions, comments or concerns, please feel free to contact us at the-rational-investor.com for a prompt reply.
That's all for this issue of CRI's OnlyDoubles,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.the-rational-investor.com
Name should be CRI's OD Spotlight for the week of July 8th, 2010
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